Dating US business cycles with macro factors
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Dating U.S. Business Cycles with Macro Factors
I propose a framework for the assessment of current business conditions using a factor-augmented autoregressive probit model where the dependent variable is the state of the economy as defined by the NBER. Results show that latent common factors estimated by principal components analysis from a large number of macroeconomic series have important predictive power for NBER recession dates. The mo...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
سال: 2016
ISSN: 1558-3708,1081-1826
DOI: 10.1515/snde-2015-0037